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Stock market whiz kids get the keys to the car

In the 1968 bestseller The Money Game, financial television host Adam Smith describes a whimsical fellow named the Great Winfield, a maturing money manager who has hired three new traders: Billy the Kid, Johnny the Kid and Sheldon the Kid.

In a scene that, 38 years later, is ominously familiar, the 20-something whiz kids buy stocks without regard for risk and ridicule adults who fret about details like safety.

"The strength of my kids is that they are too young to remember anything bad," Winfield boasts. "And they are making so much money, they feel invincible."

Welcome to the Kids' Market.

Novices are all the rage these days in the financial world, making news for everything from stock-picking prowess to money-management wizardry. They're even penetrating the grown-up world of law-breaking, earning felony counts for fraud and doing time in Club Fed.

Most recently, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on July 26 added three defendants to an action against a greenhorn insider-trading ring. Among those feeding illegal tips to the group: Stanislav Shpigelman, a 23-year-old former Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst. Shpigelman pleaded guilty on July 14 to passing on information about Adidas-Salomon AG's $3.67-billion purchase of Reebok International. Four other 20-somethings were part of the ring.

Not all the youthful headline-grabbers have run afoul of the law. Indeed, most are getting attention for their supposed financial genius.

Business Week on July 3 showcased the four-person team at Rebellion Research, a New York investment software company, under the headline "Hedge Fund Toddlers." Alex Fleiss, the 23-year-old chief executive officer and co-chairman of Rebellion, told Bloomberg News that "everything can be brought to a formula." He and his colleagues (21, 23 and 23) assume the dispassionate statistics that make up their algorithmic software will lead to risk-proof investing.

That wouldn't be quite the view of the investors who banked on Long Term Capital Management, the hedge fund that got its algorithmic brainpower from Nobel laureates. The fund collapsed in 1998 when the devaluation of the Russian ruble turned out to be an item that hadn't quite made the LTCM algorithm. The Rebellion CEO, who at that point wasn't old enough to drive, said he loses no sleep over risk of the unforeseen. "Cuba could invade America," he said. "I don't think it's gonna happen."

Equally optimistic is 23-year-old Chris Lahiji, ordained as a Whiz Kid in dozens of media reports from the time he turned 18. Lahiji became a financial celebrity in 2002, after having become "the first person to ever read 12,000 annual reports," according to the biography on his Web page (www.dailytrends.com).

Lahiji said his unaudited stock picks since January 2004 rose twice as much as the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. When he touted his top five stock picks to a national magazine in March 2004, though, Lahiji chose duds that spiked after his tout, then fell significantly within months.

Lahiji gets irritated that "People think there is a proportional tie between age and performance."

Fleiss is downright stumped at a question of whether his inexperience ever leads him to doubt his abilities: "Do I ever doubt myself? You mean this company? No, this is the greatest thing that has ever happened to me."

Adam Smith's Billy the Kid couldn't have said it better.

Susan Antilla is a Bloomberg News columnist.

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